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sinrakin
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 7044
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 Posted: 08/18/04 - 22:37 Post subject: interesting statistic from Zogby
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Was reading Zogby's newsletter for Aug, and I thought this article was pretty interesting. I'm too lazy to reformat it much, but it's fascinating that one in five Bush voters, who are thought to be rock-solid, would switch based on Stem Cell research.
| Quote: | President Bush Could Lose 20 Percent of Committed Voters if Kerry Seizes Stem Cell Science Plan,
New American Demographics-Zogby Poll Finds
First released on July 28, 2004, by American Demographics
Declared “Switchers” emerge as 2004 election phenomenon
in unique voter sentiment survey on pre-election ‘what ifs’
One of every five people who plans to vote for President George W. Bush would change his vote on election day in November
if Democratic Sen. John Kerry proposes bold stem cell research programs aimed at curing diseases such as Alzheimer’s.
A new poll done exclusively for American Demographics by Zogby International, says that if Kerry were to announce a major
initiative in stem cell research to cure diseases such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, diabetes and spinal injuries, Kerry would gain
a whopping 11 percent of Bush’s voters. Another nine percent of Bush supporters would switch to a third party, not vote, or be
undecided.
“This is the ‘sleeper issue’ of this campaign,” said Bob Beckel, a former Democratic presidential candidate strategist. “It’s
more than just stem cell research - it’s the symbolism of announcing a plan to eradicate major diseases, and part of the Baby
Boomers’ health care crisis.” American Demographics’ Washington, D.C. writer Alicia Mundy analyzes the results in an
upcoming September issue of the magazine.
There is a growing public desire for the government to do more to cure diseases that will put the Baby Boomer generation in a
squeeze, parenting their own parents while raising children, and struggling to pay for and get health insurance. “In polling, a
switch to the competition is a two-fer, so a switch of 11 percent directly from Bush to Kerry is a total change of 22 percent,”
Beckel said. And in an election where most polls show a dead heat, any significant change could swing the results.
“Politically and scientifically it’s a home run for Kerry to call for stem cell
science initiative,” said Howard Fineman of Newsweek.
The Zogby poll, fielded earlier in this month, was unique in its methodology; it
asked over 1,000 potential voters to choose between Bush and Kerry, and then
asked those who had declared for either Bush or Kerry, what it would take to
change their votes. A total of 912 respondents who picked either Bush or
Kerry, with a slight margin for Kerry over Bush, were presented with five
possible scenarios that could occur prior to the election on November 2. The
‘what ifs’ included issues such as the economy and jobs; the war in Iraq; a
stem cell research plan; Bush dumping Cheney; and a wild card: the impact of
Bill Clinton on the Kerry campaign.
Other surprise findings in the American Demographics-Zogby poll:
�� A drop in unemployment would boost Bush; however, he only directly
gained 5 percent.
�� A jump in inflation, however, could cost Bush 19 percent of his declared
voter base.
�� If Bush dumps Vice President d**k Cheney for John McCain, it’s bad
news for Kerry: he could lose up to 17 percent of his declared voters to
Bush and others.
�� Bush also gains votes from Kerry in the event of another terrorist attack
on US soil.
�� Bush did not profit from a scenario in which he might announce looser
visa/immigration restrictions for Mexicans and Central Americans. |
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Akronn
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 8752
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Posted: 08/18/04 - 23:29 Post subject:
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I'm willing to bet that the majority of people don't even understand stem cell research, which is kind of a shame. Saying it's important would be a bit of an understatement. And it was pretty sad that Reagan's son had to appeal to the DNC to speak because the right doesn't want to hear what he has to say.
Also, I found this funny:
| Quote: | Bush did not profit from a scenario in which he might announce looser
visa/immigration restrictions for Mexicans and Central Americans. |
We can file this in the 'no shit' folder. He's already p****d everyone off enough with his stance here.
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Docter
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 21 Oct 2002
Posts: 3420
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Posted: 08/18/04 - 23:44 Post subject:
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Please see the links below on Congressional legislation of embryo research. I've read numerous references to "1995" legislation that limited federal funds on embryo research, but this is all I found for the moment.
In any case, it appears that Bush's personal position is coincidental with EXISTING law. I take the stand that had he been for NO restrictions on funding, it would not matter and he could not have done anything more than he already did for the funding.
So, the Democrats are trying to pin him as "banning" research while:
a) He was the first president to actually authorize it
b) Federal funds for embryo research are $10's of millions per year since Bush took office, as opposed to $Zero BEFORE he took office
c) There is absolutely no "ban" or restriction on the research itself, but ONLY on the federal funding of the research.
d) Restrictions on the federal funding of the research are based on EXISTING US LAW passed by Congress in the 1990s, and Bush is obligated to follow the law!
1996: Approx. 4.5 years before G.W. Bush took office as President:
"Amendment sought to remove restrictions on Federal funding for human embryo research. "
">thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bd...~bdfHzH:
1996 original resolution: Approx 4-5 years before G.W. Bush took office as President.
thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bd...D&summ2=m&
"(Sec. 512) Prohibits use of funds in this Act for: (1) the creation of a human embryo or embryos for research purposes; or (2) research in which a human embryo or embryos are destroyed, discarded, or knowingly subjected to risk of injury or death greater than that allowed for research on fetuses in utero under certain Federal regulations and the Public Health Service Act. "
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Frehya
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 2398
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Posted: 08/19/04 - 01:32 Post subject:
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It might be because he keeps mentioning that he doesn't want stem cell research to happen.... like he keeps mentioning that other little thing...that constitutional amendment thing.
These are good topics to keep the evangelicals frothing and on his side. evangelical vote locked up = the win.
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Abi
RealPoor Sensei
Joined: 11 Aug 2003
Posts: 1747
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Posted: 08/19/04 - 12:16 Post subject:
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OK umm...
Stem Cell research is NOT a deciding factor for anyone. Just check out any poll which asks which issues are most important and I assure you stem cell research and gay marriage are NOT at the top of any list...
The issues which will make the difference are..
Health Care (mostly women voters consider this the number 1 priority issue)
National Security
Foreign Policy
Unemployment/Economy
This is just more propaganda...
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Guest
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Posted: 08/19/04 - 12:27 Post subject:
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| Abi wrote: | OK umm...
Stem Cell research is NOT a deciding factor for anyone. Just check out any poll which asks which issues are most important and I assure you stem cell research and gay marriage are NOT at the top of any list...
The issues which will make the difference are..
Health Care (mostly women voters consider this the number 1 priority issue)
National Security
Foreign Policy
Unemployment/Economy
This is just more propaganda... |
Beware Kerry and the "FORBIDDEN" Science!!!
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