Predictions on what will happen if Rita hits Houston? :: Ultimate MMORPG Gaming Community & Trading Zone

Renork
RealPoor Master of Posts

Joined: 23 Jun 2003
Posts: 6283

Posted: 09/20/05 - 23:20 Post subject: Predictions on what will happen if Rita hits Houston?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,169867,00.html

Quote:

The National Hurricane Center (search) forecasts that Rita will become a Category 4 storm in the next 24 hours, FOX News has learned.

And from http://www.theoildrum.com/

Quote:

The Oil Drum

A Community Discussion about Peak Oil

Where are the worst spots in TX for Rita to hit?

Posted by Prof. Goose in Supply/Production
Tue Sep 20 at 8:05 PM EST

I emailed our industry insider that question, here's her response:

The worst tracks are those which put landfall between Freeport and Sabine Pass Texas. There are 3 tracks that cross just offshore of the TX/LA border. Those 3 tracks all let the storm hit more rigs and platforms than the tracks that have landfall farther south.

The big concentrations of platforms are in the West Cameron, High Island, Galveston, and Matagorda Island offshore areas. Mustang Island and North/South Padre Island offshore areas are less crowded with production. If you want to know what these areas look like and where they are geographically, try the MMS website. They instituted the block layout, naming and leasing stuff.

Landfall just east of Houston's center will be right up refinery alley. Another bad spot is right up through Port Arthur and Beaumont - another big refining center.

Not trying to slam anyone, but the best place in terms of damage [to the oil industry] would be between Corpus Christi and Brownsville - lots of low areas and farmland/ranches would flood, but minimal infrastructure damage. Next best is between Houston and Corpus Christi - again, fairly vacant of major infrastructure. Most of our big plants are in the stretch of coastline between Freeport and Sabine Pass. We're all just watching and hoping it stays poorly organized and just hits as a Cat 2 or 3...

Folks, this is a depression maker if it blows out a half dozen more refineries.

Many places in Houston are only 25' above sea level. You can check the NGS data sheet for bench marks scattered throughout the city, and it is not as bad as NOLA, but will be hammered with flooding if there is a 25 or 30' surge.

Pray for hard south turn to a point south of Corpus Christi. This would have the least impact on the natural gas and oil production. They will be evacing platforms and shutting things down tomorrow.

editx1:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/technology_watch/1829867.html

Quote:

Civil engineers called New Orleans a disaster waiting to happen: a bowl-shaped sprawl whose protective levees also prevented the natural replenishment of its clay, sand and silt foundations. Like Venice, New Orleans was sinking--by one-third of an inch per year--and the clearing of wetlands for real estate development left the city increasingly vulnerable to storm surges. No one predicted the breaching of multiple levees, but as PM reported in 2001, even a Category 2 hurricane could have destroyed New Orleans. Now municipal authorities everywhere are facing the same question: Could another metropolis sink under a wall of water? Here are four of the most susceptible cities, and how they plan to weather the storm.

HOUSTON, TEXAS Pop: 1,946,000
Much of Houston is above sea level, but the city has subsided by 5 to 10 ft. in the past half-century. Its flat topography makes for poor drainage. In 2001, Tropical Storm Allison poured nearly 3 ft. of rain into Houston's tunnel system in a few days, creating underground rivers that invaded downtown.
DEFENSES: Flood doors that can block 15 ft. of water were installed at tunnel entr.ances. A pair of reservoirs also protect the downtown area.
FORECAST: A recent study says a Category 4 or 5 storm would cause $50 billion in damages.

LONDON, ENGLAND Pop: 7,421,000
London has been at risk for centuries--storm surges from the North Sea can swell the Thames Estuary and engulf the city. In 1953, a storm hit London during high tide, killing more than 300. Since then, the city has continued to sink on its clay foundations. (In fact, all of Britain is tilting toward the southeast by 2 ft. per century.)
DEFENSES: The Thames Barrier, a set of 10 steel-plated gates 65 ft. tall.
FORECAST: The barrier is secure, but with rising sea levels, storm surges will likely overtake the gates within 30 years.

SACRAMENTO, CALIF. Pop: 458,000
Built on a flood plain more than 70 miles inland, Sacramento, a maritime port served by two rivers, is considered one of the most flood-prone U.S. cities. Rain and meltwater from nearby mountains could surge down the valley, overtaking dams and levees. Heavy rainfall from a storm in 1986 came 20 minutes short of causing a major flood.
DEFENSES: A series of 28 dams upstream.
FORECAST: Advance warning is limited to a day or two, and a dam failure (like the Folsom's broken gate in 1995) would be devastating during a storm.

ST. PETERSBURG, RUSSIA Pop: 4,661,000
Located at the precarious juncture of the Neva River and the Gulf of Finland, and just 13 ft. above sea level, St. Petersburg has been flooded 300 times in three centuries. In 1824, a storm surge off the Gulf of Finland rose almost 14 ft., killing hundreds. An equivalent surge today would flood most of the city.
DEFENSES: A 15-mile, 11-dam barrier across the Neva Bay is scheduled to be completed by 2008.
FORECAST: Authorities ran out of funds for the barrier in 1987, and could again. For now, the city is virtually defenseless.

Last edited by Renork on 09/21/05 - 01:42; edited 1 time in total

Predictions on what will happen if Rita hits Houston?

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