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Teutates
Luke Warm
Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 232
Location: At her computer
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xammer99
Luke Warm
Joined: 14 Mar 2003
Posts: 336
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 Posted: 11/04/04 - 21:34 Post subject:
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Hillary will go for it if the democratic party turns stupid again in '08.
Why? Because you don't get extremists elected their first time out, and Hillary is most definately an extremists. Granted, wierd things happen, but the election history of the past 20 years bears this out. You win your first time out by going to the middle and being the most middle.
Its called political economics...learn it, live it, love it.
To have even a snowballs chance in hell, Hillary will have to do a _LOT_ of history rewriting. This was one of Kerry's problems, overcoming being an extremist in his voting record.
For those who don't understand political economics btw, here is a rough one. The electorate falls on a bell curve with the left and the right on their respective ends of the continuum. The closer you get to the peak of the curve the more votes you'll get. By default you will get all of those to your back, and then increasingly edge out your oppontent by being more centrist than he is. Thats why Bush & Gore looked and sounded so similiar in 2000 and Kerry tried to out Bush, Bush this time around. That wasn't kerry trying to be conservative, just to move as far to the right as he could to eat up more of that continuum.
This of course gets complicated by 3rd party candidates who are more extremist than the mainstream candidate in every case in the past 20 years. They eat up the respective base they represent. For instance Perot destroyed a HUGE chunk of GHWBush's base, while Nader took a very small but statistically important part of Kerry's base.
Pretty simple, but its why everyone runs for the middle and for first times out its better to have no history (GW Bush) than a long history (Kerry), because you can shape yourself into a much more successful candidate.
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Frax
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 8489
Location: Fuck yoiu fucking fuckers
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Posted: 11/04/04 - 21:51 Post subject:
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Actually the one big thing against her (other than being a wacko and female) is that only 3 of 43 presidents have ever been elected with only legislative governing experience. Its the same uphill climb kerry couldn't get over.
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Buckshot
Luke Warm
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Posts: 449
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Posted: 11/04/04 - 22:01 Post subject:
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| Frax wrote: | | only 3 of 43 presidents have ever been elected with only legislative governing experience. |
interesting fact, if such.
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Obmar
RealPoor Sensei
Joined: 22 Oct 2002
Posts: 1934
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Posted: 11/05/04 - 00:33 Post subject:
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Obama for the win
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Akronn
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 8752
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Posted: 11/05/04 - 00:44 Post subject:
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I read alot about the theory Xammer points out here during the Clinton/Dole election and it definately rings true.
Also, I don't think a senator has much of a chance to win these days. They have too much of a past, voting records are just ripe for attack. This elimates Hillary, Frist, McCain (god, the GOP would never let him win the primaries anyways) etc.
Look to the governors, our next president is coming from that pool.
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xammer99
Luke Warm
Joined: 14 Mar 2003
Posts: 336
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Posted: 11/05/04 - 13:43 Post subject:
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Actually its 2 senators who have gone straight from the Senate to the White House. The last was Kennedy in 1960 and he BARELY won, only put in by the first use of electoral targeting tactics. This doesn't mean senators can't be presidents, but that they have to generally be vice presidents first, and its also a rare vice president who goes on to president.
In the past 100+ years only 1, may be 2, has gone straight from VP to President.
Roosevelt: Vp to President, but got it by virtue of McKinley's death.
Sherman: Didn't run for president in 1916 when he would have been eligable after he and Taft were beat in 1912.
Marshall: Didn't run for President in 1920 when he would have been elligble.
Coolidge: Vp to President, but got President by virtue of Harding's death.
Dawes: Hoover swept the Republican primaries, so no presidential bid.
Curtis: The Depression doomed Curtis as much as it did Hoover, so no presidential bid in 1936 which would have been his first chance since Hoover ran for reelection in 32.
The other VP's for FDR that no one remembers: None even tried.
Truman: Vp to President, but got President by virtue of FDR's death.
Nixon: Vp to President, but lost in 60 and had to wait till 68. So arguably a choice, but because of the time difference probably not applicable.
Johnson: Vp to President, but got President by virtue of JFK's death.
Humphrey: Failed to win election in 1968.
Agnew: Resigned.
Ford: Vp to President, but got President by virtue of Nixon's resignation.
Mondale: Failed to win election in 1984.
GHW Bush: Only candidate to go straight from VP to President without time off.
Gore: Failed to win election in 2000.
My personal theory on this is it again comes down to personal history. If there is to much to overcome you can't get yourself close enough to the center for the win.
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xammer99
Luke Warm
Joined: 14 Mar 2003
Posts: 336
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Posted: 11/05/04 - 13:50 Post subject:
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Btw, pay attention to Hillary's voting record for the next 2 years. If she starts moderating her votes, she's going to run. Not sure if I agree with the analysis of her modifying her dress code to appear more "traditional", but she will absolutely modify her voting. You will also see a noticable visibility increase nationwide because she's a Clinton and will easily be able to get the media time. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if she puts out another book just to make sure attention stays focused on her.
Also, as a 1 term senator she might think she's safe enough to do it. The last guy to do it had 6 years in Congress and 8 in the Senate but had new tactics to play on. She has a new twist in being a former first lady and a very small actual political history. So she might think she can reinvent herself sufficiently to win.
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Teutates
Luke Warm
Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 232
Location: At her computer
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Posted: 11/06/04 - 05:51 Post subject:
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| xammer99 wrote: |
Also, as a 1 term senator she might think she's safe enough to do it. The last guy to do it had 6 years in Congress and 8 in the Senate but had new tactics to play on. She has a new twist in being a former first lady and a very small actual political history. So she might think she can reinvent herself sufficiently to win. |
I think this is the spin she's going to try. She has a unique position in the fact that she HAS seen teh presidency from the inside. She basically has 8 yrs xp in the seat already. and i think that will be to her advantage. Whats going to hurt her is that her attitudes are so .. how shall i say. . strong =)
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Qienn
Luke Warm
Joined: 13 Oct 2002
Posts: 182
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Posted: 11/06/04 - 09:00 Post subject:
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Hillary would make John Kerry look like a good candidate. Unlike Bill, Hillary isn't likable to most of America. Most people think of her as an elitist b***h.
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Brash
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 20 Oct 2002
Posts: 3958
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Posted: 11/06/04 - 16:53 Post subject:
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id sooner vote for kbarr than her
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Scrabler
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 2660
Location: Mobile, AL
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Posted: 11/06/04 - 16:54 Post subject:
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It would be cool calling Bill the First Man.
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Silvermouse
RealPoor Jedi
Joined: 12 Oct 2002
Posts: 11015
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Posted: 11/06/04 - 17:51 Post subject:
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If she runs, we'll be forced to sit through more discussions about Whitewater and Vince Foster's suicide. Does anyone really want that to happen?
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Brael
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 2122
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Posted: 11/06/04 - 18:36 Post subject:
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But, but, but, what about the scandals where the first man is screwing the interns!?!?!?!?!?
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rosie
Can't Stop Posting
Joined: 21 Aug 2003
Posts: 665
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Posted: 11/06/04 - 18:51 Post subject:
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| Qienn wrote: | | Unlike Bill, Hillary isn't likable to most of America. Most people think of her as an elitist b***h. |
Exactly why she'd get my vote.
Seriously though, I just want Darrell Hammond to have a job again.
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Jarec
Luke Warm
Joined: 16 Oct 2002
Posts: 123
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 03:21 Post subject:
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Hillary would all-in-all be a two for the price of one president. Bill's influence would no doubt be lurking in the shadows.
It's a sad matter of fact that Senator Hillary Clinton is basically the only candidate that the democrats have a hope in hell of getting elected in '08. The trouble is that assuming she won the nomination, she'd most likely be running up against Senator John McCain (most likely choice for the Republican presidential ticket in '08).
Hillary can't win for two reasons. The first being that the United States as a whole doesn't appear to be ready yet for a woman president and John McCain would win much more cross party support than Hillary would.
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Aluaeia
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
Posts: 5670
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 04:26 Post subject:
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I sooner vote for the f*****g Fascist party dude than Hillary Clinton.
Fortunately since I tend to vote Libertarian, I won't have to deal with those facist nutjobs.
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Nahualli
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 8461
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 04:29 Post subject:
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Hillary Clinton will have been the only American President to have served 4 terms.
-Nah-
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Teutates
Luke Warm
Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 232
Location: At her computer
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 08:00 Post subject:
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| Nahualli wrote: | Hillary Clinton will have been the only American President to have served 4 terms.
-Nah- |
uhm *cough*
President Franklin Delanor Roosevelt -- which initiated the 22nd amendment
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Silvermouse
RealPoor Jedi
Joined: 12 Oct 2002
Posts: 11015
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 13:02 Post subject:
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| Teutates wrote: | | Nahualli wrote: | Hillary Clinton will have been the only American President to have served 4 terms.
-Nah- |
uhm *cough*
President Franklin Delanor Roosevelt -- which initiated the 22nd amendment |
To be fair, FDR served for 3.25 terms, as he died in 1945.
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Scrabler
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 2660
Location: Mobile, AL
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:06 Post subject:
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| Silvermouse wrote: | | Teutates wrote: | | Nahualli wrote: | Hillary Clinton will have been the only American President to have served 4 terms.
-Nah- |
uhm *cough*
President Franklin Delanor Roosevelt -- which initiated the 22nd amendment |
To be fair, FDR served for 3.25 terms, as he died in 1945. |
Yeah..you can be Pres for 10 years really. You get 2 elected terms but you can also add on 2 years if you moved up from VP. If you go over 2 years it counts as a term though.
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Nictathan
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 5531
Location: here... where I am... not with you
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:19 Post subject:
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I'm with whoever said Obama we need a black pres
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Scrabler
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 2660
Location: Mobile, AL
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:27 Post subject:
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| Nictathan wrote: | | I'm with whoever said Obama we need a black pres |
No black man or any woman would win in 2008..maybe in a few elections but certainly not now.
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Nictathan
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 5531
Location: here... where I am... not with you
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:31 Post subject:
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| Scrabler wrote: | | Nictathan wrote: | | I'm with whoever said Obama we need a black pres |
No black man or any woman would win in 2008..maybe in a few elections but certainly not now. |
I hope he does just to p**s your redneck racist ass off
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Nahualli
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 8461
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:32 Post subject:
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| Scrabler wrote: | | Nictathan wrote: | | I'm with whoever said Obama we need a black pres |
No black man or any woman would win in 2008..maybe in a few elections but certainly not now. |
Correct, we have to wait for a few more generations of rednecks to die out first 
-Nah-
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quotison
RealPoor Sensei
Joined: 13 Oct 2002
Posts: 1594
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:33 Post subject:
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Barack Obama will not run in 2008, he said on Meet the Press yesterday that he was absoultely going to serve out his full six year term
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Scrabler
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 2660
Location: Mobile, AL
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:34 Post subject:
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| Nictathan wrote: | | Scrabler wrote: | | Nictathan wrote: | | I'm with whoever said Obama we need a black pres |
No black man or any woman would win in 2008..maybe in a few elections but certainly not now. |
I hope he does just to p**s your redneck racist ass off |
Yeah I'd hate a black man in office, but that's not my point. As much as liberals like to think America is kind and open we are pretty far off from seeing a female/minority Pres.
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Nictathan
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 5531
Location: here... where I am... not with you
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:35 Post subject:
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| quotison wrote: | | Barack Obama will not run in 2008, he said on Meet the Press yesterday that he was absoultely going to serve out his full six year term |
Oh I was pretty sure he wasn't running, I just want it to be a possibility so a******s like Scrabler p**s and moan
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Nahualli
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 8461
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:35 Post subject:
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| Scrabler wrote: | | As much as liberals like to think America is kind and open we are pretty far off from seeing a female/minority Pres. |
Hahaha.. I don't understand how you can make statements like this and not kick yourself in the ass.
We aren't ready for a female or black President BECAUSE OF PEOPLE LIKE YOU.
-Nah-
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xammer99
Luke Warm
Joined: 14 Mar 2003
Posts: 336
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Posted: 11/08/04 - 18:35 Post subject:
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Obama still makes me chuckle. He's declared a bright spot for the Dems, yet when it comes down to it, his election was an absolute gimme. Ryan drops out and Obama gets handed the election in a walk b/c Keyes decides its a good idea to repeatedly put his foot in his mouth and he's effectively a complete outsider to Illinois voters. Plus it was an open seat, its not like Obama was challenging anyone. Ah well, the media has to have some democrat to hype up to keep the troops from cryin to hard.
Honestly, I'd be happier over Reid were I a democrat, finally a leader for you guys in the senate that might be able to raise the senatorial democratic profile above something other than contrarian obstructionism. If you think Daschel's antics didn't hurt you, you are very mistaken.
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