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Pankrat
Can't Stop Posting
Joined: 12 Oct 2002
Posts: 603
Location: Land of Paranoia
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 Posted: 08/02/04 - 03:24 Post subject: Demo convention gives Bush a 4 point bounce.
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The Dem's need to have more of these! 
http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Poll%3A+No+boost+for+Kerry+after+convention&expire=&urlID=11186062&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fpoliticselections%2Fnation%2Fpresident%2F2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm&partnerID=1660
Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
Last week's Democratic convention boosted voters' impressions of John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. (Related item: Poll results)
In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Bush led Kerry 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.
The survey showed Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before the Boston convention.
The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/-4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention.
USA TODAY extended its survey to Sunday to get a fuller picture of what's happening.
A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave the Democratic ticket a 49%-42% lead. Over three weeks, that reflected a 4-point "bounce" for Kerry, the smallest ever in the Newsweek poll.
Among registered voters in the USA TODAY poll, Kerry and Bush each had 47%. Bush was up 4 points, Kerry unchanged from the pre-convention survey.
Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll.
"In a race this tight, the polls are going to be all over the place," said Stephanie Cutter, Kerry's communications director. "Most importantly, voters now clearly trust John Kerry more than Bush to lead and defend America."
But Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said "history doesn't bode well" for Kerry. Since World War II, the three challengers who have unseated presidents held clear leads after their conventions.
Democratic leaders have expressed delight about the convention, which showed a united party and emphasized national security. Those surveyed gave the convention and its candidate high marks:
Kerry's acceptance speech Thursday was rated as "excellent" by 26%, a more positive response than Bush got in 2000. A 44% plurality said the Democrats were "about right" in criticizing Bush; 30% said they went too far.
Views of Kerry's personal characteristics and leadership improved; views of Bush didn't change much. Bush's edge in handling terrorism was shaved to 12 points from 18. In a switch, Kerry now is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, by 51%-46%.
Kerry's military service is seen as a plus. A 52% majority says it would help him be an effective president. More than one in four say it makes them more likely to vote for him.
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 04:08 Post subject:
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Bush is a lock.
And yes its true, I KICK ASS! HAA!!!
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Abi
RealPoor Sensei
Joined: 11 Aug 2003
Posts: 1747
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 13:00 Post subject:
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Not that I EVER put much faith in polls but.. cool 
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 13:38 Post subject:
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Kerry’s lead over Bush widens, though not substantially. But the Democrat makes big gains by other measures
David Hume Kennerly / Getty Images for Newsweek
Boys on the bus: The campaign embarked on a 17-state tour on Friday
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 4:53 p.m. ET July 31, 2004July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Kerry's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried after Kerry's Thursday night speech gave the Democrat a ten-point lead over Bush. Three weeks ago, Kerry’s lead was three points.
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Kerry’s four-point “bounce” is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll. There are several factors that may have contributed to the limited surge, including the timing of the poll. On Thursday, Kerry had just a two-point lead over Bush (47 percent to 45 percent), suggesting that his Friday night speech had a significant impact. Additionally, Kerry’s decision to announce his vice-presidential choice of John Edwards three weeks before the convention may have blunted the gathering’s impact. And limited coverage by the three major networks also may have hurt Kerry.
Still, Kerry and Edwards have gained ground on several key election issues. For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, as many voters strongly back Kerry as strongly back Bush (31 percent to 30 percent). In an election expected to be decided by a small number of unaffiliated voters, independents now lean toward Kerry by a margin of 45 percent to 39 percent, with Nader pulling 7 percent. And voters are becoming more likely to predict a Kerry victory in November: Forty-four percent say Kerry will win vs. 43 percent who predict Bush.
Interactive Poll
Did the convention convince you? Take our poll
Voters are deadlocked at 46 percent over who they would trust more with handling the situation in Iraq (Bush had enjoyed a 15 point lead in March). They also just barely prefer Bush to Kerry (48 percent to 43 percent) on handling terror and homeland security, issues on which they had preferred the president by 21 points in March. This is significant because the top issues among voters are terrorism (21 percent), the economy (19 percent), Iraq (18 percent) and health care (15 percent).
Kerry gets higher ratings as someone who can be trusted “to make the right decisions during an international crisis” (53 percent Kerry versus 48 percent Bush). Six in 10 voters (58 percent) are dissatisfied with the direction the country is headed and, domestically, more voters believe Bush’s policies have hurt (43 percent) rather than helped (33 percent) the economy. Voters also feel they would far more trust Kerry (55 percent) than Bush (32 percent) with issues pertaining to health care and Medicare.
Meanwhile, Bush’s own approval ratings continue to slip. Forty-five percent say they approve of the job the president is doing vs. 49 percent who disapprove. Three weeks ago, Bush’s approval rating was 48 percent; his high was 82 percent in the week after the September 11 attacks.
The best news the Bush campaign gets out of the NEWSWEEK poll is that Kerry’s stance on the gay marriage issue lies outside of the mainstream. Voters choose Bush’s less permissive stance on gay marriage by a wide margin (46 percent to 33 percent) as the position that best reflects their own views. However, this potential wedge issue may be tempered by the fact that voters vastly prefer Kerry’s progressive stance on stem cell research by a margin of 53 percent to 26 percent.
On the heels of a star-studded week—which featured unequivocal support for Kerry from former president Bill Clinton; Ron Reagan, the son of a beloved Republican president; rising star Barack Obama and Vietnam vet Sen. Max Cleland—the Democratic Party’s nominee now boasts stronger ratings than the president on being “personally likeable” (67 percent agree with that description of Kerry, 62 percent of the president); on being someone who cares about “someone like you” (57 percent feel this describes Kerry, 44 percent Bush); and on having “strong leadership qualities” (31 percent don’t see these in Kerry whereas 38 percent don’t see them in Bush).
With the major networks broadcasting very little of the actual convention in prime time, registered voters did not watch very much of it. Just half the voters (48 percent) said they watched at least some of the convention, with 41 percent of those who did watch walking away with a more favorable view of candidate. About a quarter (24 percent) of all viewers felt less favorable.
For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,010 adults aged 18 and older July 29 and July 30 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
© 2004 Newsweek, Inc.
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Guest
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 13:44 Post subject:
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Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush
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Pankrat
Can't Stop Posting
Joined: 12 Oct 2002
Posts: 603
Location: Land of Paranoia
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 13:49 Post subject:
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USAToday/CNN/Gallup says Bush holds a 4 point lead over Kerry - up 4 points from a week BEFORE the convention.
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Frehya
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 2398
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:02 Post subject:
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In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?"
YES [43%]
NO [53%]
UNSURE [4%]
PWN
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Pankrat
Can't Stop Posting
Joined: 12 Oct 2002
Posts: 603
Location: Land of Paranoia
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:07 Post subject:
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LOL wow you've got some serious blinders on. Yes we saw the poll you cited which shows your main is up. Did you not see the CNN/Gallup/USAToday poll (most current one) that shows that in a 2 way race Bush wins 50/47 and a 3 way race 50/46?
I have a mental picture of you with your eyes closed, fingers in your ears going lalalalalalalallala i cant hear you lalalalalal.
It's going to be fun when your guys loses and you are crying about another "stolen" election 
Or perhaps it's a right wing conspiracy by CNN to elect GW.
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:17 Post subject:
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You cant base shit off of one poll.
The trend is as time goes by, kerry gains in popularity.
Wait till the debates.
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Pankrat
Can't Stop Posting
Joined: 12 Oct 2002
Posts: 603
Location: Land of Paranoia
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:18 Post subject:
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The debates are going to be fun, I'll give you that. But I'm predicting they won't go quite the way you are expecting. But yes, we shall see.
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Confused
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 6730
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:19 Post subject:
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| Jack Crow wrote: | You cant base shit off of one poll.
The trend is as time goes by, kerry gains in popularity.
Wait till the debates. |
Bush is currently ahead in both popular and electoral votes and he hasn't even taken full benefit from the economy and Republican convention. You lose Jack....You lose.
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:23 Post subject:
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| Confused wrote: | | Jack Crow wrote: | You cant base shit off of one poll.
The trend is as time goes by, kerry gains in popularity.
Wait till the debates. |
Bush is currently ahead in both popular and electoral votes and he hasn't even taken full benefit from the economy and Republican convention. You lose Jack....You lose. |
Im truly not worried
you dont think the republicans were out balls to the wall full force in 2000?
They barely won by 500 votes.
Democrats are going to be voting their asses off this time around.
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Confused
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 6730
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:30 Post subject:
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| Jack Crow wrote: | | Confused wrote: | | Jack Crow wrote: | You cant base shit off of one poll.
The trend is as time goes by, kerry gains in popularity.
Wait till the debates. |
Bush is currently ahead in both popular and electoral votes and he hasn't even taken full benefit from the economy and Republican convention. You lose Jack....You lose. |
Im truly not worried
you dont think the republicans were out balls to the wall full force in 2000?
They barely won by 500 votes.
Democrats are going to be voting their asses off this time around. |
Obviously not enough...since Kerry is behind in both popular and electoral votes. Of course given the shortcomings of the leftists' choice for president and VP (you'd think they'd be able to find SOMEBODY in the country), I'm guessing there will be a lot of this:
http://kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=67485
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Guest
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 14:40 Post subject:
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| Kbarr wrote: | Bush is a lock.
And yes its true, I KICK ASS! HAA!!!
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lauren000
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 21 Oct 2002
Posts: 3510
Location: colorado springs
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 18:02 Post subject:
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If you ask a person how they'll vote on the phone it doesn't mean they'll ever make it to the polls. There are a lot of people behind the "anyone but Bush" movement and there are a lot of republicans that aren't exactly thrilled with him either. It doesn't really matter if Bush is favored if those who would vote for him don't care enough to show up and vote.
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Frax
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 8489
Location: Fuck yoiu fucking fuckers
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Posted: 08/02/04 - 23:38 Post subject:
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Only one poll matters... the ones that happen when the electoral votes are in.. My thinking is that Bush will win by taking California this time, hthat big prize will neutralize almost any other states Kerry can get behind him. He is guaranted Texas and has decent support in NY (especially post 9/11)..he could even possibly take NY outright thanks to Nader.
http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presge.htm
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Confused
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 6730
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Posted: 08/03/04 - 09:34 Post subject:
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| lauren000 wrote: | | If you ask a person how they'll vote on the phone it doesn't mean they'll ever make it to the polls. There are a lot of people behind the "anyone but Bush" movement and there are a lot of republicans that aren't exactly thrilled with him either. It doesn't really matter if Bush is favored if those who would vote for him don't care enough to show up and vote. |
They poll "likely voters" and leftists are much less likely to vote since they're all lazy sons of b*****s.
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Obmar
RealPoor Sensei
Joined: 22 Oct 2002
Posts: 1934
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Posted: 08/03/04 - 10:34 Post subject:
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polls are generally silly
not to mention the +/- on both of those cover any slight fluctuation cited.
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sinrakin
RealPoor Master of Posts
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 7044
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Posted: 08/03/04 - 10:54 Post subject:
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| Obmar wrote: | polls are generally silly
not to mention the +/- on both of those cover any slight fluctuation cited. |
Agreed.
I was going to say that yesterday, but then I got caught up in trying to figure out if you can make any inference at all from a succession of results that appear to show a trend, but who's error bars overlap.
So if your result is say, plus or minus 4%, and you get successive results of 50, 49, 48, 47, the true result could quite legitimately be holding rock steady at 50%. Is there any justification for saying that the results are indicating that a downward trend is more likely than a steady value? My gut feeling is no, but I couldn't prove it off the top of my head. Anyone know?
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Luturb
RealPoor Guru
Joined: 11 Oct 2002
Posts: 4042
Location: Livermore, California
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Posted: 08/03/04 - 11:32 Post subject:
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Holy God. Turn that url into a link plz
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